UK Policy Forecast #4 - Prisons, London and Supersonic Flight
And now the policy forecast,
Before we start, consider for 10 seconds what you’d forecast on the following. Maybe note it down on a scrap of paper:
The current prison population is 131 prisoners per 100,000 people. What will it be 5 years after the next election? What if Labour win? What if the Conservatives win?
In 2019, 15.8% of people in England lived in London. What % will that be at the end of 2022?
Will you be able to travel between London and New York in under 3 hours commercially before the end of 2029? How likely is this? This hasn’t been possible since Concorde stopped
If Labour/Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
Labour median: 129 prisoners per 100,000 5 years after the next election
Conservative median: 135 prisoners per 100,000
Number of predictions: 40 (Labour), 43 (Conservatives)
Notes:
The graphs for both parties have been stable.
Some forecasters reference the new prisons the current Conservative Government are building
Some point out that Kier Starmer said that the call from Black Lives Matter to “defund the police” is “nonsense”. This was said to bolster the argument that a Labour Government won’t lead to fewer prisoners
The resolution criterion is the World Prison Brief. This only comes out every two years. If this question ends on the odd year, it will use the previous year’s numbers. Slightly quirky that it will either be 4 or 5 years depending on the year, but it’s fine because the market will know in advance.
I like this kind of question. It looks at what forecasters think the impact of a specific political party is on outcomes. My sense is that much commentary of what X party would do on Y policy is wrong, but it’s hard to pin this down. Forecasts like this make it clear what people thought at the time. This will be particularly interesting near the next election
Economist Robin Hanson proposed that prediction markets (like these but with money) be much more widely used around elections, incentivising people to predict accurately on different outcomes if different parties win.
I intend to write some questions like this. What metrics would you like to see (Houses built, GDP per capita)? Write here or in the comments.
What percentage of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/
Median forecast: 16.0%
Number of predictions: 39
Notes:
Much ink has been spilt on the impact of COVID-19 on where people live. This forecast provides a clear discussion point. As far as the forecasters are concerned it will be the same as 2019
I haven’t checked the trend over time, this might not follow the trend, which would be notable in itself
If someone wants to create a graph of London population as a fraction of England’s population over time I’ll include it in the next issue
Will be possible to travel commercially between London and New York in under 3 hours before the end of 2029?
Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?
Median forecast: 35%
310 predictions by 157 users
Notes:
Jgalt notes that United Airlines said they will buy 15 supersonic planes and be flying in 2029
There are discussions of a range of other technologies from other aircraft to SpaceX plans to use rockets for point to point travel. I don’t think most of these will be commercial before 2030
The key questions seem to be “will this technology exist” and “how long will it take to be operational”
There are also discussion of how the pandemic will affect air travel
Concorde used to fly over my house, so I’ll admit to bias here (well I’m biased everywhere, but here I’m aware). Somewhere in my parents’ house is the grainy photo of its last flight. I hope this one resolves yes
General notes and updates
If you’re ever having Covid discussions, I think our two previously featured forecasts are still worth a look
[Will the 7-day average of Covid deaths rise above 100?], is at 65% and slowly climbing. This is the one to watch to see if a breaking story is worth following
One of the most active markets [will restrictions be reintroduced] is now at 54% No, having recently crossed 50%
Since issue #3 the forecast [will slaughterhouses be banned in the UK by 2050] has fallen from 20% to 10%. That’s big news, literally halving the chance. There are no comments and the timing makes me wonder if this humble publication had anything to do with it. Regardless, that’s the beauty of forecasting, no one had to write an essay, just a few forecasters got cold feet and pushed their forecasts down. As a result, we get a signal we can see.
Nathan
@NathanpmYoung
I love feedback. I guess there are a couple of mistakes per issue. Tell me what you like and what you didn’t. Comment, write in this Google Doc or message me on Twitter.